Goldman Sachs believes the US could avoid a recession in 2023, putting a minority among Wall Street forecasters, who think a collapse is a possibility.
According to the investor note put out this week, the money bank thinks there is a 35% chance that the US will face problems. Meanwhile, Goldman estimates that the median projection of Wall Street analysts is around 65%.
“We think the U.S. recession is less likely than the median forecaster,” Goldman said, backing up that claim with the following chart, which shows the recession at the end of the published forecast:
See the chart below:
In addition, the note indicated that Goldman “is above consensus on US growth.” For 2022, Goldman forecasts growth in real US GDP of 1.9% compared to the estimate of 1.8%. The agency continues that outlook until 2023 where it sees GDP growth at 1.0% compared to the consensus of 0.4%.
More recently, expectations that the Federal Reserve will be able to abandon its anti-inflationary policy, fueled by higher-than-expected inflation numbers last week, have boosted the high volume (SP500), (DJI), (COMP.IND) , and mirroring ETFs (NYSEARCA: SPY), (NYSEARCA: WOW(IVV), (NYSEARCA: SLIDES), and (NASDAQ: QQQ), to retrace their October lows.
On the other side of the recession argument, Russell Investments believes that the US is not at risk at this point but will likely be at the end of 2023.