It’s Chicken Day! An odd little annual tradition where Americans and Canadians look to a little feathered chicken to predict the weather.
Although there’s nothing wrong with our Groundhog Day celebration (unless it’s 2014 and you’re Staten Island Chuck meeting(Opens in a new window) then-Mayor of New York City Bill de Blasio), it’s amazing that today’s most famous bee, Punxsutawney Phil, has been making predictions for years.
According to Stormfax Weather Almanac(Opens in a new window)which follows Phil’s predictions, the bee has been correct 39 percent of the time over the past 136 years. 39 percent. It’s disgusting! Is this your god, Western Pennsylvania?
First, a brief summary of the rules of Groundhog Day: If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow when he starts to come out of his hole, we get six more weeks of winter. If they don’t, we’re about to start spring.
So, Phil has two choices. A 50 percent chance of success. However, its track record of forecasting the weather has been poor. It’s a good idea to follow up on anything that contradicts Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions.
Phil has been doing this since 1887 (as a side note: damn, he’s old). As of 2023, Phil has 137 predictions under his belt. Unfortunately, 9 of those prophecies have been lost to history. But, this means we have 128 prophecies to see here. Phil saw his shadow and predicted 6 more weeks of winter 108 times. He predicted the onset of Spring only 20 times.
What about this year? About 2023(Opens in a new window), Phil has gone with his 6 free weeks of winter forecasting after seeing his shadow. On the opposite side, his main competitor, Staten Island Chuck, just he predicted(Opens in a new window) Early Spring for 8 consecutive years.
Punxsutawney Phil vs Staten Island Chuck
Who will be right this time? If I were a betting man, I would no go with Nate Silver from Punxsutawney, PA. I’d go with Chuck who has some surprises 80 percent correct level since he has been in the game since 1981. Not a bad rat who was overthrown by NYC Mayor de Blasio in 2014 and died a few days later.
Regardless of who is right this time, I think we can all agree that Phil and Chuck are already having a better year than Fred la Marmotte from Quebec. The Canadians who put together the Groundhog Day event had everyone out this morning and waited before Fred came out and made his predictions to drop. amazing(Opens in a new window): Fred is dead.
Happy Chicken Day!
