The World Cup Round of 16 kicks off on Saturday and our tipster Jones Knows will be in the betting booth to find some tasty bets.
Netherlands vs USA, Saturday 3pm
Heads of favorites should be spinning in this World Cup – and there could be plenty of surprises to come in the last 16, starting with Sky Bet making the Netherlands 2/5 to qualify for the quarter-finals. This equates to a 72 percent chance. Not for me, Geoff.
The increased expectations from the three-game miniseries certainly put the USA on the verge of winning the tournament.
The Netherlands topped Group A despite making a poor goal percentage (-0.33) and losing both expected goals against Senegal and Ecuador. Cody Gakpo’s sharp shooting shows some worrying cracks in their performance.
Cody Gakpo of the Netherlands celebrates his goal
So far, the USA has done what they expected, showing the metal and the middle class with Yunus Musah led by Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie. Those three ran games against England and Iran.
The same should happen here and I fully expect the USA to wander into some of the goal-scoring areas – whether they have the ability to take advantage despite the worrisome and low-scoring game seems plausible.
This keeps me from helping them get the job done in the results market but one bet has caught my attention in the first round of shooting in the target market. In all three Group B games, the USA played with intensity and confidence in the first 45 minutes. Of their total expected goals (2.6) in this competition, 75 percent (1.96) came before half time as there seemed to be a clear plan to start quickly and take the game to the opposition. This has led me to the Evens being offered from Sky Bet for the USA to have two or more shots on target in the first half.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0 (USA to win on penalties) | | BEST RETURN: USA to have at least two shots on target in the first half (Even with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Argentina vs Australia, Saturday 7pm
One of my World Cup heroes was the Aussie brute Harry Souttar, who showed the spirit within his team with some great performances to chase down those who came. However, this may be one step too far.
Dealing with Martin Braithwaite is one thing, dealing with Lionel Messi is another. The markets have bought this as, perhaps, the biggest one-sided World Cup match in history with Argentina 1/5 with Sky Bet to win in 90 minutes. It was a scrappy contest but if Australia beat Argentina then we can say the World Cup ‘goes home,’ he is drunk’.
Will Lionel Messi and Argentina celebrate on Saturday
It’s not the best bet with the lowest odds of all Argentina bets but those looking for a side to go with at a respectable price may want to take 5/6 with Sky Bet on an Argentina win and under 3.5 goals. Each of their last 11 wins in competitive play fell below the 3.5 line, including all of their wins at this World Cup. Work done and continued may be the way to go.
MOST ADVANCED: 2-0
France vs Poland, Sunday 3pm
No matter how much my heart wants to find a stable and sound side to return to Poland so that England can have a trip to the quarter-finals, my head cannot accept it. It’s a little secret that the Poles are still in the race.
Saudi Arabia wins aside, in the other two games they failed to score and look at the expectations that were not surprising. In the matches against Mexico and Argentina he made an unexpected goal of 0.47. Wojciech Szczesny and Robert Lewandowski will need to have the games of their lives to stop an exciting France side who lack strength in depth but have the most dangerous first-team threat in the competition.
With the goals predicted, the French foursome Kylian Mbappe, Olivier Giroud, Antonie Griezmann and Ousmane Dembele are all runners up in the goal markets. Dembele is the biggest price of the four at 9/4 to score at any time with Sky Bet and that seems a bit underwhelming considering he has looked “on” this tournament. In his two starts, he has struck out four times for an expected goals return of 0.42. He can score in the victory of France.
MOST ADVANCED: 2-0
England vs Senegal, Sunday 7pm
In what is expected to be a cagey encounter, set-pieces will play a major role for England.
Gareth Southgate fully understands the importance of divisions in competitions. I think he is well aware of the number of goals that come through this method in the World Cup at this time. In the last 16 of 48 games, 31 goals have been scored through the penalty area – which does not include penalties. It’s an average of 0.6 games, meaning that in every two games there is a goal scored from a corner or free-kick.
England are one of the most advanced teams in such situations, scoring 11 of their 29 non-penalty goals in major competitions under Southgate from set-pieces. Harry Maguire netted two of those goals and the English powerhouse is taken to score the title at 16/1 with Sky Bet.
Maguire has seven goals in 51 caps for his country and is the target of every set-piece in the England box, meaning you’re in for a big bang when you pull on the England shirt. Senegal conceded a corner in their win over Ecuador and you can bet your life on Southgate planning with Maguire up front to exploit any weak spots in the opposition’s back line.
MOST ADVANCED: 1-0 | | BEST RETURN: Harry Maguire to score a header (16/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Harry Maguire created a production show
Japan vs Croatia, Monday 3pm
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Brazil vs South Korea, Monday 7pm
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Morocco vs Spain, Tuesday 3pm
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Portugal vs Switzerland, Tuesday 7pm
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